Enrollment Solutions

About MDRoffers Consulting

• Municipal, regional, and school district planning experts with 30+ years of experience
• Projected enrollment for ~50 Wisconsin school districts, including nearby Sheboygan Falls
• Use projection methodology that relies on analyzing new housing construction, demographic change, and household and neighborhood turnover

Presentation Outline

Recent Trends

• PSD enrollment decreased by 360 students, or 16% (greater than 8% decrease in public school enrollment statewide)
• Decreases occurred at all grade groups, but concentrated in the elementary (5K-4) grade group

• Open-enrollment-in of non-residents to PSD schools has remained stable over the past decade
• PSD residents open-enrolling-out to other public districts has increased over the past decade
• Overall, net negative open enrollment of ~60 students in 2025-26 academic year

• Enrollment at private schools operating in the PSD decreased by 97 students over past decade (-25%)
• This is a greater decrease than that which occurred in the PSD (-16%)
• This means that area private schools are similarly experiencing challenges in enrollment due to broad demographic and housing trends...

• Decreasing births since 2000, decreasing from 196 births to 145 births in 2025 (-37%)
• Greater than the 14% decrease in births across the State
• Suggests continued enrollment decreases due to smaller kindergarten and elementary school class sizes over the next few years

• Population aged 25-44 (i.e., reproductive-aged) decreased by 412 residents (-9%) in 2010s
• This age group contains much of the Millennial generation
• As of 2020, there are now 1,000+ more seniors aged 65 and older than there are school-aged children in the PSD, a reversal from the 2010 Census

• City of Plymouth experienced high levels of new housing development in the 1990s and 2000s
• New housing development decreased substantially in the 2010s, suggesting a slow bounce-back from the late-2000s Great Recession
• Lack of new housing development in 2010s directly related to recent trends of overall aging population, decreasing births, and decreasing enrollment

• Over the past decade, 417 new housing units built in City of Plymouth
• 40% of these permits were issued in 2025 alone, when 162 new housing units were permitted, mostly in new multiple-family units (apartments)
• This is the highest total in several years
• Consultant expects trend to continue, as several local and regional developers have become interested in Plymouth (including the Sheboygan County Economic Development Corporation), and the City has recently approved or received proposals for new single-family subdivisions and multiple-family developments

• PSD Student Generated per New Apartment (small sample size): 0.06
• PSD Student Generated per New Townhome (small sample size): 0.06
• PSD Student Generated per Existing Apartment: 0.14
• PSD Student Generated per Existing Single-Family Home: 0.28
• PSD Student Generated per New Single-Family Home: 0.53

• Consultant compared home sale addresses to PSD student addresses
• Analysis discovered that each single-family home sale over past 5 years generated an average of 0.35 PSD student
• This means one student is generated for every three existing homes sold
• Similar to most school districts, which often generate around 0.30 student generated per recent home sale

• High number of home sales in the early-2020s driven by low interest rates and pandemic-driven shifts
• Interest rate increases occurred in 2022, 2023, and 2024... decreasing home sales by over 30%
• 2024 and 2025 = stable home sales as home buyers become used to higher rates, still lower than historical average
• High(er) interest rates expected to continue for a few years, resulting in fewer home sales (and related enrollment impact)

Projection Methodology Overview

1. Divided PSD into 61 neighborhoods, using elementary attendance areas, major roads,rivers, other geographic factors
2. Estimated housing units by neighborhood as of June 2026
3. Calculated current student-per-housing unit ratios for each grade group and each neighborhood using June 2026 student addresses
4. Analyzed demographics, existing housing, & future housing expectations for each neighborhood using municipal plans, recent and pending developments, and discussions with planners and real estate experts
5. Projected housing growth for 2027, 2030, 2035, and 2040 in each neighborhood
6. Projected PSD student-per-housing unit ratios for each neighborhood, year, and grade group
7. Multiplied projected housing units by student-per-housing unit ratios in each neighborhood to arrive at PSD resident student enrollment projections for each neighborhood
8. Included projected open-enrollment-in students, held constant from the number in the 2025-26 academic year, resulting in a total students-in-seats projection

Housing Projections

• We project 1,303 new housing units in the PSD by 2040 (~91 per year)
• Driven by:
  • SCEDC report showing a significant unmet need/pent-up demand for new housing
  • SCEDC proven success in building housing across County
  • Municipal plans supportive of new housing development
  • Municipal infrastructure to support growth
  • Strong interest from regional developers & home builders
  • Significant development breaking ground in 2027
  • Access to local and regional employment centers
• Most housing projected in City of Plymouth (86% of all new housing), lower amounts in Towns and Village of Cascade
• About 48% of new housing projected to be new single-family homes (with higher student generation rate)
• 52% expected to be new multiple-family housing (with lower student generation rate)
• New housing development concentrated on south side of City (Highway 67 corridor) and east side of City (Highway 57 corridor)

Total Housing Projected by Elementary Attendance Area
41% of all new housing through 2040 projected in the current Fairview attendance area, 39% in current Parkview attendance area, and 20% in current Horizon attendance area

• Remember that newer single-family homes generate students at the highest rates
• 62% of projected new single-family homes (+384) in current Parkview area
• Lower numbers of new single-family homes projected in current Horizon and Fairview attendance areas

Enrollment Projections

• Private schooling, home schooling, & open-enrollment-out held constant from 2025-26
• Constant number of open-enrollment-in students attending each school as during the 2025-26 academic year

• We project total enrollment in grades EC-4 at PSD elementary schools to decrease by 62 students through 2040, with most of that decrease projected over the next few years, with enrollment thereafter stabilizing
• Decreasing enrollment projected at Horizon (-46 students) and Fairview (-13 students)
• Stable enrollment projected at Parkview (-3 students) due to new housing development, especially new single-family homes, in the current Parkview attendance area

• We project a decrease of 70 grade 5-8 students at Riverview Middle by 2040
• Enrollment expected to decrease through mid-2030s and stabilize by 2040
• We project a decrease of 135 grade 9-12 students at Plymouth High by 2040
• Enrollment expected to decrease through 2040
• Grade 9-12 decrease is due to larger current high school class sizes, which average 177 students per grade compared to current elementary class sizes, which average 117 students per grade

• Alternative scenario: What would future enrollment be if there was no new housing built through 2040?
• Main factors affecting enrollment = births, demographic trends, aging housing stock, and turnover of housing through home sales
• Under this alternative scenario, projected enrollment would instead decrease by over 540 students by 2040 (rather than the actual projected 248 student decrease)
• Takeaway: maintaining even stable enrollment requires a substantial amount of new housing

Comparing Enrollment Projections to Current Building Capacities

• Enrollment projections gain significance when compared to school building capacities
• Building capacities provided by PSD administration by multiplying the number of core classrooms in each school building by the median class size per grade served, based on district class size policies

• Projected 2040 grade EC-4 enrollment is around 490 students fewer than combined building capacity of all three PSD elementary schools
• Projected 2040 grade 5-8 enrollment around 330 students fewer than Riverview Middle School building capacity
• Projected 2040 grade 9-12 enrollment around 650 students fewer than Plymouth High School building capacity

Looking back

Looking ahead